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Trading Idea: Shorting GBP

Update: 20th Aug 2009 – 15:00 GMT

Covered all my GBP Shorts and also the EURGBP Long. Time to sleep now, late night in Australia. Charts tomorrow specially for Crude Oil.

Just a quick post to let everyone know that as discussed in my earlier post(s), I’m shorting GBP today against majors such USD, JPY and CHF. Also enjoying the Long Trade on EURGBP where the last 4 hours bar has turned out to be extremely profitable.

Its interesting to note that most of the pairs have gone back to the Channel Bound Range which means more trades but limited profits in terms of pips and eventually more manual monitoring required. However, the good times aren’t too far either.

Also, looking for the optimal entry for Shorting Crude Oil

Will post chart(s) tomorrow perhaps.

Strategy: Shorting GBP, waiting for Short Crude Oil Entry

Trade Updates: 20th August 2009

Well, yesterday was quite an interesting day for USD and what we noticed was some resistance from the Major Currencies against the USD, however this was nothing like a surprise. If you scroll down few pages, you’ll find my post in which I mentioned that I was covering my Short Positions on Crude Oil as I was expecting some Intraday Weakness for USD.

On Ichimoku Chart, the Kijun-Sen line for USD Index had turned flat for quite a sometime and this pullback for USD was very much expected in result of that Kijun-Sen movement. As it happens usually, this large bar on 4H chart (for example in EURUSD) has excited the Herd and people have already starting calling for another Bullish Run for EURUSD I’ve a different opinion and I still maintain my longer term Bearish Bias for the Majors against Greenback.

Another interesting thing to watch yesterday was the S&P500 move, it had a Bullish day yesterday and the Bulls managed to close the day in a positive territory. However, couple of important things to note down are:

1. The Last two days Intaday Candles are still Engulffed by the large Bearish Candle we had on 17th August
2. The Index has failed to break its Tenkan-Sen Resistance Line

While there is still a chance that the Market appreciates further upside and USD gets Hammered, the overall Trend Bias would still remain Bearish for S&P500, Crude Oil and Major Currencies. The Crude Oil itself has reached to its Over-Bought category (though we might still see a bit of upside move) and I’ll be now looking for my next Shorting Entry for Oil. Copper on the other hand is in a very interesting state where I took some profits earlier with my Long Trade but on the longer-term the Trend is fading out and we might see it losing against Greenback.

In terms of Trades I’ve got, here are few updates:

1. EURUSD: Covered all my remaining Shorts covered @ 1.41, now waiting for the next optimal Entry for another Short Trade
2. USDJPY: Covered this one @ 93.80
3. GBPUSD: Covered this one @ 1.6385
4. EURJPY: Finally Covered this one @ 132.50
5. Silver: Covered @ 13.50
6. Gold: Covered @ 931.50
7. USDCHF: Profit-Taking @ 1.08 was triggered automatically
8. Others: Some are covered already and some are still open

Now, here is the catch. Just because I’ve covered EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURJPY, it doesnt mean that I should go Long on these pairs , quite contrary to that I’m now sitting tight and waiting for my next Short Trade Entry Points.

These are very important days for the market and I would suggest extreme caution should be taken when you make calls for either Long or Short. One move up or down does not tell you anything about where the market is heading to. Just as my friend and Guru “Master CodyB” suggests, one should start looking from the Larger Timeframes such as Weekly and drill down to Daily, 4Hours, Hourly and reaching to the Timeframe that you like to trade on. Once all the charts start respecting each other, you’re in pretty safe hands.

Good luck to everyone.

4H Trade: USDJPY – 19th August 2009

Update: 19th August 2009 – 14:30 GMT: Covered this position @ 93.80

As mentioned earlier that I was looking for Short Entry to USDJPY, I’ve already been into trade from 95.23 and now have a potential Profit Taking Target at 93.60

Any upside move from here should be limited IMO

Strategy: Shorting, waiting for Profit Taking

Covered: Crude Oil – 19th August 2009

I’ve covered the Short Trade I initiated earlier for Crude Oil at 70.43. There might be an Intraday uptrend for Oil today and if that happens it may bring some weakness for Greenback today.

Strategy: Covered Short Trade for Oil, will look for next shorting opportunity once upside move is completed

4H Trade: Short GBPUSD – 19th August 2009

As discussed earlier that I was looking for an Entry point for GBPUSD, I entered into a Short Trade for Cable from 1.6580 just after it touched the over-bought category. Currently the Trade is in profit however its important to note that the pair has quickly retraced back to the Over-Sold state and another upside move might be on cards. I will hold my Trade for now as this is my long-term trade and even if we see a double top I’ll be adding further short positions later on.

The trend overall is Bearish.

Strategy: Shorting but another upside move (might be limited though) can not be ruled out

Trading Idea: Shorting GBPUSD – 19th August 2009

Just a quick post to update that I’m looking for a Shorting Opportunity on GBPUSD for a longer term time-frame, will post a chart later.

Strategy: Looking for an optimal entry for Shorting GBPUSD

Trade Entry: Shorting Crude Oil 18th August 2009

As discussed earlier, I’m shorting Crude Oil today but just not too sure about the potential duration of this particular trade. Will post a chart later sometime.

Strategy: Shorting Crude Oil but caution suggested

Trading Idea: USDJPY – 18th August 2009

Looks like the Bearish outlook (supported by sliding trendline) is still  alive and here to stay. I’m now looking for next Short Entry Point, I had covered my Short Positions earlier on 14th August …

Strategy: Looking for Short Entry